Posted by: senorwx | April 1, 2015

Never Say Never

Never is a very long time, especially when it comes to the weather. Six years of weather data is certainly not never. In spite of that insight, based on six years of records at the San Pancho Weather Station, yours truly promised no rain for the months of March and April 2015. Wrong.

Early March opened with just over two inches of precipitation in three days in San Pancho. Puerto Vallarta had more than three inches and the Sierras even more, flooding arroyos and rivers alike. Most humbling for me was I had guests in town for the rain after promising them it was the picture perfect time of year to visit the Rivera Nayarit.

Going back to 2009 there is no rain on record for April in San Francisco, Nayarit. So that makes it unlikely that we’ll see rain this month. That’s not an April Fool’s Day joke. But it’s not a promise. I’m staying out of the prognostication business for a while.

The high temperature for March 2015 was 86.6 F, slightly above average. The low was 59.8, also slightly above average for the month. Looking forward, April will bring highs in the mid-80s with lows around 60. Rain very unlikely! If the past is any predictor of the future.

But, it may not be.

Posted by: senorwx | March 16, 2015

It’s Not Over Yet

Monday morning and the rain continues in San Pancho. Light rain could continue through tomorrow.

In the last 24 hours we’ve had 2 inches of rain and temperatures are in the mid-60s. A huge low pressure system covers all of Central Mexico, coast to coast.

For those celebrating the long holiday weekend the weather has been disappointing.

For the record books, it’s the first real rainstorm we’ve had since 2009, an all time record for the San Pancho Weather Station.

How do I explain this to my guests who arrive this afternoon?

Posted by: senorwx | March 15, 2015

What’s that stuff falling from the sky?

Once again San Pancho is experiencing rain in March.

This is record-breaking because since the San Pancho Weather Station first went online, there has never before been measurable rainfall in March or April.

The first rainfall was only 0.06 inches. Today’s rain will be more significant, creeping past 0.11 as I write. Enough to break my no-rain guarantee of a month ago. And on a holiday weekend no less!

We’re just on the edge of a huge cloud cover over all of central Mexico. Take a look at it here:

My apologies. You’d think I’d know better than making a weather prediction. You’d think.

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