Posted by: senorwx | October 1, 2014

The Storm We Missed

Cabo San Lucas Destruction - AP Photo

Cabo San Lucas Destruction – AP Photo

The weather event of September is the one we missed: Odile. Brushing by San Pancho it slammed full force into Cabo San Lucas, La Paz and dozens of towns along the Baja California Peninsula. It brought death, destruction, looting and closed the airport which is still not open at this writing.

Hurricane Odile brought a few sprinkles as it passed San Francisco, Nayarit with wind gusts for about fifteen minutes, one reaching 24 mph, but that was it. On the other hand, the churning Pacific took it’s bite out of our beach in September and came ashore through the restaurant area and the Malecon.

A noteable rain storm pelted San Francisco on the evening of the 10th. Three inches of rain in three hours! Low lying areas in town and along Tercer Mundo were flooded. A lack of drainage on our Main Street and structures built at or below grade level provided easy access for the runoff to cause damage in some homes and businesses.

The most-asked question this summer was about our rainfall total for the year. We had about a half dozen major rain events, including several rain days near the end of September. With 34 inches for the year on record now, it is likely we will have a “normal” rainfall for 2014.

What’s normal? The yearly average for the past six years (not including 2014) is 43 inches. But, he hastens to add, the annual rainfall range is between 36 and 44 inches each year. A couple of more inches this month will bring us into that “normal” range. The average for the past 7 years is at 43 inches because of that infamous September, bridge-washing-out, 2010 when the yearly rainfall totaled 55.70 inches!

Our endlessly hot and extended summer temperatures finally moderated in San Pancho during the September. Above average temperatures started early in May and continued through July. Normally hot temperatures followed in August and September. For those of us in San Pancho during the summer those extra two months of hot weather in May and June were totally unnecessary. To boot, we registered a record high for all the Septembers on record with 93.9.

You’ll understand if we don’t talk about the heat index readings for this summer. In a word: high.

October promises to bring daily high temperatures around 80, two to four inches of rain, and early sightings of friends returning to San Pancho on the the beautiful a Riviera Nayarit.


Posted by: senorwx | September 1, 2014

The Long Hot Summer in San Pancho

August 2014 had the least rainfall on record at the San Pancho Weather station, but it was only a half an inch less than a year ago. How fickle our weather-memory is! The amount was low, but not unique.

Precipitation (in)
    Jan   Feb  Mar  Apr  May  June  July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Annual Tot.
2014 0.28 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.50 11.84 4.05  7.13  -  -   -  -       23.84
2013 0.92 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00  2.41 8.29  7.65 19.10 1.97 0.70 3.09   44.1
2012 0.00 3.98 0.00 0.00 0.72  3.12 6.73  11.69 9.13 3.37 0.00 0.05   38.79
2011 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00  4.51 13.59 12.34 2.81 2.71 0.08 0.07   36.11
2010 0.04 3.34 0.00 0.00 0.01  1.75 7.43  14.41 28.26 0.25 0.08 0.14    55.70
2009 0.07 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.74  7.20 7.64   8.20 8.15 3.79 0.37 3.03      39.24

What is more interesting is that the total rainfall for the year through August is about average. Conventional wisdom (i.e. walking and talking to others around town) is that we are way behind previous years for rain. The average of all six years since 2009 is 25.16 inches. August was only two inches off that mark. So let’s look at each year:

August Precipitation (in)
2014 23.84
2013 19.33
2012 26.24
2011 30.44
2010 26.99
2009 23.91

Remember that in 2010 we had no idea of the impending September downpours and record rains. Check it above. Rainfall for September 2010: 28.26 inches! Now there’s a weather event that created real memories. if you find someone who was in town then, just ask. They’ll remember!

The more interesting story from San Francisco, Nayarit for August was the heat and heat index temperatures this year. it all started in June when we had August-like temperatures.

The average temperature for June 2014 was 83.4 F (all hourly readings divided by 24…not the high temperature). The June average is usually between 80 and 81.

July averaged 84 where the average in past years is around 81.

And for August? The average was 83.4, just slightly above all previous years on record. And exactly the same as June of this year!

The Heat Index was up there in August, but it didn’t beat the high for July. Here are the high Heat Index records for this summer:

June 114.0 F
July 119.6
August 117.1

My take on it for those of us who have sweltered through the past 90 days is that we just got started on our warmest weather a month early this year. You can expect September’s average to be a couple of degrees cooler if that’s any comfort. And let’s hope we don’t have a repeat of September 2010’s rains!


Posted by: senorwx | August 4, 2014

Baking in the Summer Sun. July Hottest Ever.

Following the lead of June, July 2014 was the hottest July on record here in San Pancho.

Highest temperature: 94 F  (July 2009, the next hottest, wasn’t even close at 92.)

The average high temperature for the month: 84 F (Last July 2009 came in second at 82.8)

The maximum Heat Index for July 2014 left every other year since 2008 in the dust: 119 F. In 2013 and 2012 we reached 108 readings. Not even close.

Here on the Riviera Nayarit we are prepared to experience a lot of rain from June through September. June didn’t let us down: 11.84 inches, a record, considering the next rainiest June occurred in 2009 with only 7 inches.

July’s downfall was lack of rainfall. 4.05 inches. Less than any July in the San Pancho Weather Station database. A puny amount compared to the next lowest measurement of 7 inches in 2012.

Our July rain came in two installments. One at the beginning of the month and another on the 23rd, both of them less than two inches with a few minor events during the month to bring the total to 4 inches.

While the shortfall on downfall doesn’t mean we are heading into a draught, the unusually hot weather of the past two months doesn’t prove a case for global warming. But those two months have certainly varied significantly from the norm of recent years.

Just so you can play along during the month of August to find out how unusual it is, here’s what past records indicate. The August high temperature is expected to be around 92. Oh, that category has already been taken, we’ve already reached a high of 93.8 F in four days.

The August high Heat Index reading is expected to be 112. Oops again. We’ve already reached 119.6 F.

August precipitation in previous years has ranged from 7.6 inches to 12.34 inches (2011), so with a bit more than an inch in four days its difficult to make a prediction now. Though the late afternoon cloud formations seem to have gotten back to a more regular pattern which bodes for more rain.

If you enjoy getting into the “weeds” of statistics from the San Pancho Weather Station, just click on the San Pancho Stats link at the top of each page. And there are some nifty search options and graphs that the Weather Underground provides based on our data. Check it out here.

Thanks for your comments and input and remember to stop by the San Pancho Weather Station anytime from anywhere.

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